Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ICP prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 5.730222 6.290819 6.907417 7.640637 8.494992 9.466816 10.667138
2024-10-20 4.704517 5.418176 6.262898 7.353376 8.749685 10.515684 12.984054
2024-10-27 4.140149 4.914359 5.875084 7.185694 8.979307 11.434559 15.222696
2024-11-03 3.779675 4.591780 5.637349 7.128454 9.285500 12.449034 17.796155
2024-11-10 3.661506 4.554203 5.747931 7.532195 10.274962 14.627496 22.846336
2024-11-17 3.484616 4.413425 5.692658 7.677877 10.886492 16.336292 27.728829
2024-11-24 3.253584 4.174111 5.469023 7.534431 11.000455 17.206141 31.306263
2024-12-01 3.088424 4.012106 5.338694 7.513295 11.305087 18.481251 36.363353
2024-12-08 2.908930 3.815089 5.137364 7.351495 11.331362 19.212523 40.471656
2024-12-15 2.781856 3.685140 5.025575 7.321880 11.588722 20.478867 46.811935
2024-12-22 2.664977 3.562048 4.913554 7.277436 11.807246 21.714891 53.966896
2024-12-29 2.608717 3.525882 4.934080 7.462961 12.506278 24.277815 68.137611
2025-01-05 2.448852 3.330973 4.700213 7.197246 12.296472 24.681328 75.079599
2025-01-12 2.300862 3.148335 4.477299 6.936367 12.073340 25.045413 82.860453
2025-01-19 2.187081 3.012320 4.321134 6.782564 12.058375 25.996928 95.477510
2025-01-26 2.101812 2.916166 4.224227 6.730001 12.262465 27.683919 116.368030
2025-02-02 2.094919 2.944086 4.338918 7.100425 13.537670 33.420233 189.590418
2025-02-09 2.049474 2.906185 4.335795 7.233883 14.265372 37.784952 284.151529
2025-02-16 1.967761 2.803991 4.211534 7.102474 14.276584 39.416624 358.861342
2025-02-23 1.908216 2.735686 4.143555 7.083102 14.590597 42.559188 518.104907
2025-03-02 1.834855 2.640723 4.021331 6.934739 14.516891 43.953659 672.310181
2025-03-09 1.782756 2.579380 3.957138 6.907568 14.791335 47.275827 1070.578083
2025-03-16 1.732194 2.518348 3.889812 6.866785 15.020059 50.603790 1856.378902